圈圈学论文11—B2C电子商务企业供应链风险预警模型研究

分享兴趣，传播快乐，增长见闻，留下美好！亲爱的您电子商务供应链管理论文，这里是学苑。今天小编为大家带来的是论文赏析——《B2C电子商务企业供应链风险预警研究》。

上期呢我们对文章的供应链风险及其预警必要性进行了详细的分析，今天继续学习B2C电子商务企业风险预警模型构建部分。

供应链风险预警模型的总体思路如下图所示114信息网sitemaps，在搜集信息数据的基础上，构建预警指标体系，通过对单个预警指标进行分析以及预警指标权重的确定，进一步运用模糊综合评价得到供应链总体风险值，与之前已经确定的预警界限进行对比，明确风险等级，发出警报。

首先需要确定预警指标体系。全面系统地分析了可能导致B2C电子商务企业供应链风险的各类诱因后，为了增强评价指标的科学性与合理性，有必要对初步识别出的风险诱因进行进一步的筛选，识别对供应链有重大影响的关键风险诱因圈圈学论文11—B2C电子商务企业供应链风险预警模型研究，以优化风险预警指标体系。具体预警指标体系设置如下：

接着即运用粗糙集理论确定权重，粗糙集的理论的基本原理前面的推文中已经详细介绍过，本次了解粗糙集理论确定权重的步骤。

文章考虑到B2C电子商务企业供应链风险预警指标数量繁多，并且定性与定量相结合，运用模糊综合评价法进行评价。模糊评价方法的特点主要表现在：第一，模糊评价方法可以标准选用不尽合理而导致的评价结果的偏差。第二，评价指标的重要程度通过权重加以体现，另外，有效地避免了累计误差的影响。第三，模糊评价结果能更好的反映出评价对象的整体特征和一般趋势。

模糊综合评价法预警评估主要有以下几个步骤：

（1）建立模糊集

（2）单因素评估

（3）综合风险评估

通过模糊综合评价得出综合预警评价指标之后，需要和设定的预警界限做对比。本文对不同类型定量预警指标标准值的界定如下，其中电子商务供应链管理论文，区间型变量上下浮动20%分别作为满意值的上下限，上调100%作为不允许值的上限，下调50%作为不允许值的下限。

根据上述对预警界限以及警度的划分，得到最终的风险警报系统如下表所示。

Chapter.2

“英文学习”

The general idea of the supply chain risk early warning model is shown in the figure below. On the basis of and data, an early warning system is . Through the of a single early warning and the of the early warning weight, the overall risk of the supply chain can be by further fuzzy . The value is with the warning limit that has been before, the risk level is defined, and an alarm is issued.

First, an early warning system needs to be . After a and of all kinds of that may lead to supply chain risks of B2C e- , in order to enhance the and of the , it is to further screen the risk to risk factors that may affect the supply chain. The key risk of impact to the risk early warning system. The early warning system is set as follows:

Next, the rough set theory is used to the weight. The basic of the rough set theory has been in detail in the tweet. This time, I will the steps of the rough set theory to the weight.

the large number of risk warning in the supply chain of B2C e- , and the of and , this paper uses the fuzzy method to . The of the fuzzy method are as follows: First, the fuzzy method can be used for the of the results caused by the of the . Second, the of the index is by the weight, and in , the of error is avoided. Third, the fuzzy results can better reflect the overall and general trends of the objects.

The early-warning of the fuzzy method mainly the steps:

(1) a fuzzy set

(2) Single factor

(3) risk

After the early warning index is through fuzzy , it needs to be with the set early warning limit. In this paper, the values of types of early warning are defined as follows. Among them, the by 20% as the upper and lower limits of the value, by 100% as the upper limit of the value, and by 50% as the lower limit of the value.

to the above- of the warning limit and the warning degree, the final risk warning system is as shown in the table.

翻译：谷歌翻译。

参考资料：[1]张星娟.B2C电子商务企业供应链风险预警模型研究

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